Renewable Energies in the Light of Development Experiences in Fifty Years, 1960-2010

Abstract

Political, socio-economic and environmental trends are examined in the past fifty years. Three periods are distinguished in this time span. The first one is the “optimistic” phase (1960-70). Concerns about renewable energy were absent. The motto here is “development without any frontier”. The second phase is the “pessimistic” stage (1970-85), where “the limits of growth” are emphasised. Interest in renewable energy is strongly brought to the fore at this stage. An environmental catastrophe is predicted if development patterns continue. Renewable energy becomes a viable alternative to expensive and contaminating fuel energy during this stage. The final phase, which we call “realistic”, is being witnessed now (1985-present) where attempts are being made to reconcile development and environmental goals. These trends help to distinguish four paradigms that have oriented global development and renewable energy in the past sixty years: the “Modernisation” and “Neo-liberalism” school, which contributes to the optimistic vision of the sixties; Secondly “Dependence” theories followed by “World- Systems” schools, less concerned with renewable energies but looking at oil predominance as an instrument of big corporations and something serving the interests of rich countries. The “Club of Rome” paradigm, on the other hand, emphasises scepticism about all kinds of development efforts. In the “pessimistic stage” it predicted catastrophe if exploitation patterns continued without regard to environmental and clean energy concerns. The prevalent paradigm nowadays, however, is the “Sustainable Development” approach, which seems to be a synthesis of past experiences amenable to the “realistic” stage. This realisation will help to build bridges among extremist ideologies that continue defending the “development at all costs” that many proclaimed in the seventies. Universities may play an objective role in favour of renewable energies at this point in time. This effort might become an important contribution to the 450 Scenario endorsed by the International Energy Agency, which envisages limiting the global temperature rise to 2°C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2030. Latin America and the world have experienced big swings from the “First” to the “Fifth Development Decade” (1960-2010), following the denomination coined by the United Nations (UN). Public policies had initiatives with ups and downs similar to the major trends of the time. The oil crisis reached it maximum point in 2008, when its price reached US$147 in July. This event, unique in the history of fuel, immediately led to a series of measures to achieve more energy efficiency. The responsible bodies of many countries made energy production matrixes that, for the future, presented a gradual reduction of fossil fuels in favour of different renewable energy alternatives. This effort still needs more time to be evaluated, but it is adequate to appraise it in the light of the development context where it has taken place. The crucial question for the future is: will past patterns continue into the present, or will the contexts in which this situation has emerged change sufficiently to produce new results? Since 1960 the rise in oil prices has determined most initiatives in renewable energies, which have gone forward as high costs have prevailed. Experience shows that when the price of oil has declined, efforts to design, boost, invest and produce these energies lose impetus. In this document, we will analyse the different development contexts that have taken place in the last 50 years. We will make the paradigms that have influenced this result clear, determine its impact in the dilemma of fossil fuelspollution versus renewable energies, and infer from this analysis the probable course of the trend, in order to derive lessons in sustainable development for the present and the future, – especially with regard to the role that universities may play in this dilemma.